Peltola nears 50%, has 10,412-ballot lead over Sullivan with fewer than 12,000 to be counted

AP has not yet called Alaska’s US Senate race; Kreiss-Tomkins wins governor’s race, Begich well ahead in US House race, ranked choice repeal fails

Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola speaks at an election night event Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Anchorage, Alaska. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)

By Mark Sabbatini

Juneau Independent

Democratic challenger Mary Peltola appears to be nearing a mathematical lock on first-choice ballots in the U.S. Senate race, as she leads incumbent Republican Dan S. Sullivan by 10,412 votes with fewer than 12,000 remaining to be counted, according to results released Friday night.

However, she is still just shy of a majority with 49.84% of ballots tallied to Sullivan’s 46.09%, according to results released by the Alaska Division of Elections at about 7:15 p.m. The Associated Press estimates 96% of ballots cast have been counted, but has not yet projected a winner in the race.

The deadline to tally ballots legally received is Wednesday. Elections officials will conduct ranked choice runoffs that day for candidate races where no person has a majority of first-choice votes. In Alaska’s statewide races Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins has been declared the winner, with two of his three Republican opponents conceding, and a ballot measure to repeal ranked choice voting has failed.

Peltola’s campaign issued a statement Friday night declaring there is "no mathematical path for Sullivan to win this race" — a questionable claim since the race hasn’t been called — and accurately noting ballots tallied since Election Day have favored the Democratic challenger and appear likely to do so with the remaining ballots.

Nate Adams, a spokesperson for Sullivan, told The New York Times on Friday night that “we’re still waiting for every ballot to be counted. And we’ll see what happens from there.”

A lawsuit ordered by President Donald Trump, plus federal and state criminal investigations ordered by him and Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy, are ongoing due to accusations Peltola’s campaign recruited retired Petersburg teacher Dan J. Sullivan and other spoiler candidates in an attempt to confuse voters.

Peltola’s 3.75% lead over the incumbent as of Friday night far exceeds the 1.64% of ballots cast for the Petersburg resident, potentially making the lawsuit moot since it seeks to halt certification if she wins by fewer votes than he receives.

Projections based on election division data show the ranked choice process will result in a Peltola win if she doesn’t get a majority of first-choice ballots.

In Alaska’s other congressional race, Republican U.S. Rep. Nick Begich III has 47.83%, independent challenger Bill Hill 41.73%, Democratic federal prison inmate Eric Hafner 7.67% and Libertarian Jim McDermott 2.62%. Candidate ranking data available so far from the elections division shows Begich likely to win a ranked choice runoff.

A ballot measure repealing Alaska’s ranked choice voting, open primaries and some campaign finance disclosure rules has been defeated, with 53.52% of ballots as of Friday opposed and 46.48% in favor.

• Contact Mark Sabbatini at editor@juneauindependent.com or (907) 957-2306.